Volatility Regimes in BTC, ETH, and SOL
Realized volatility is not a single number. How it clusters, how the three largest assets differ, and why regime awareness belongs in every risk model.
Realized volatility — the standard deviation of observed returns — is the most common way to summarize how much an asset moves. The problem with treating it as a single figure is that it is anything but stable. Periods of low volatility tend to be followed by more low volatility, and turbulent periods tend to persist once they begin. Any model that assumes a constant level will be too cautious in quiet markets and dangerously complacent in stressed ones.
Figure 130-day realized volatility, annualized
Live dataMeasuring it consistently
We compute daily log returns from closing prices and take a rolling standard deviation over a fixed window. Because crypto markets trade continuously through weekends and holidays, the annualization factor is the square root of 365, not the 252 trading days used for most equity markets. Using the wrong factor understates annualized crypto volatility by roughly 17%.
Why the assets differ
Across most historical windows, BTC has been the least volatile of the three, with ETH above it and SOL above both. The ordering reflects differences in market capitalization, liquidity depth, and the composition of holders. But the gaps between them are not fixed: in broad risk-off events, volatility across the complex tends to rise together and the spread between assets can compress.
Choosing a window
- Short windows (7–14 days) respond quickly but are noisy and can overreact to single events.
- Medium windows (30 days) balance responsiveness and stability for most monitoring use.
- Long windows (90+ days) are stable but will lag a regime change by weeks.
- Intraday estimators using high-frequency data are more efficient, but must correct for microstructure noise.
No single window is correct. Our practice is to publish several side by side, so that a reader can see when short-horizon volatility breaks away from its longer-run level — often the earliest quantitative sign that the regime is changing.
This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any asset. Live figures are computed from third-party public market data and may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate.
